Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)
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中文 한국어 Leopold
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Latest call Updated August 20, 2026
Humanoids have a benchmark. Marvell has a $12B warrant. "The keyword for AI optics in the coming years will be: shortage" · Aug 18–19

Unitree closed day one at +460% (~$48B) — the first public pure-play humanoid benchmark for his $CCXI bet. Google took a ~$12.2B warrant in $MRVL tied to TPU custom silicon. And a Taiwan laser packager's GM says the whole AI optical chain is out of stock for years. His view, not advice.

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The AI build-out, as he sees it Tap a stage to see those picks
Public analyst · X: @aleabitoreddit · 1M+ followers (crossed Aug 11, 2026)

He doesn't buy Nvidia.
He buys the three obscure companies Nvidia can't build a GPU without.

Serenity is a former Reddit WSB trader and AI/photonics engineer who built a 1M+-follower following on X by mapping the AI supply chain to chokepoint nodes — obscure, vertically-integrated suppliers without which the hyperscaler AI buildout literally stops. Self-reported track record: +122% over the year to 04/2026, and +3,612% YTD as of June 11, 2026 — his own figures: leveraged, volatile, unaudited, and posted at different times; we can't reconcile the two numbers, so treat them as his claims, not verified returns. July 17, same transparency in the other direction: he disclosed a −49.4% drawdown for the month in the market-wide AI/memory/photonics crash (his post ↗), cut his leverage, and kept the thesis — and on Aug 15 posted (in Chinese, dismissing “blew up” rumors) that his YTD return still stands at +2,411.84% after the crash (his post ↗; self-reported, unaudited, same as every figure here) — leveraged-and-volatile cuts both ways, and he posts it both ways. No fund, no 13F — just public theses on X, validated by subsequent earnings and industry warnings.

Follow on X → Framework: Chokepoint Theory Sector: AI photonics + supply chain Style: concentrated, ~1.4x margin
THE CHOKEPOINT STACK what an Nvidia GPU can't ship without Nvidia GPU what everyone buys ↓ can't run without ↓ Optics & CPO $LITE $COHR CW lasers $SIVE $AAOI Epiwafers $IQE InP substrate $AXTI fewer suppliers ↓ more pricing power Own the bottleneck, not the brand. “The Strait of AXTI” · his core framework
1Y return
+122%
Self-reported · 04/2026 · unaudited
YTD 2026
+3,612%
Self-reported · 06/11 · unaudited — then a −49.4% July drawdown ↗, also self-reported
Chokepoints mapped
7
Layers of AI photonics
Names called
20+
Self-reported wins — see caveats below
The framework
"The Strait of AXTI"

Just as 20% of global oil passes through one strait, the AI photonics buildout depends on a handful of single-vendor or duopoly chokepoints. Find them, own them, hold them.

The edge
"Only buys what he's touched"

Former AI research scientist + RISC-V Foundation member + silicon-photonics engineer. Reads the substrate-level technical literature retail (and most analysts) won't.

The validation
"Frontran institutions"

Called $AXTI's InP substrate bottleneck a year before IntelliEPI's CEO publicly warned of an "indium phosphide supply shortage" in Q1 2026. Earnings have repeatedly confirmed.

The chokepoint map

Seven layers of the AI-photonics supply chain, each with a structural bottleneck. The ticker on each row is the publicly-stated chokepoint owner.
1
Raw materials — gallium, indium, arsenic
$AXTI · vertically integrated
Sourcing and refinement of the rare metals every InP wafer starts with. Concentrated in China; AXT processes its own.
2
pBN crucibles & growth equipment
Shin-Etsu Chemical · JP
Pyrolytic boron nitride crucibles that grow the InP boules. Single-vendor equipment chokepoint.
3
InP substrate processing — "the crown jewel"
$AXTI · + an unnamed monopoly/duopoly
Where the photonics supply chain pinches hardest. IntelliEPI's CEO publicly confirmed an "InP shortage" in Q1 2026 — a year after Serenity's call.
4
CW lasers — light source for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
$SIVE · Sivers Semi
The 2027–2028 inflection. CPO replaces pluggable optics; Sivers owns the laser-source choke at ~$290M cap.
5
Optical transceivers — assembly
$AAOI · $COHR · $LITE · Innolight
The visible end of the chain. Nvidia's $2B optical investment locked in capacity here ahead of supply shocks.
6
Testing & qualification
$AEHR · Aehr Test Systems
Photonics test equipment — "early $AAOI stage" before the volume ramp. Recently won qualification orders from a leading transceiver vendor.
7
Optical cable & fiber (HCF + traditional)
$GLW · Prysmian · Furukawa
The plumbing. Traditional fiber + new hollow-core fiber for low-latency interconnect between AI clusters.

Every name he's publicly called

Filter by category. Star the ones you want to track. Picks paraphrased from public posts — see sources.
Market:
Jargon, translated: InP = indium phosphide, the crystal wafer these lasers are built on · CPO = co-packaged optics, moving the light link right next to the chip · ELS/ELSFP = external laser source, the laser that feeds those optics · CW laser = continuous-wave (steady-beam) laser · SiPh = silicon photonics · HVM = high-volume manufacturing.

The three-phase rotation

His framework for how institutional money flows through the AI supply chain.
Phase 1 · Done
Memory / HBM
"Caught the tail end"

$SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU. Institutions rotated in late 2025 / early 2026.

Phase 2 · Now
Optical transceivers
"Frontran institutions"

$AAOI, $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR. Many up 100–400% since first posts.

Phase 3 · Emerging
SiPh / ELS / CPO
"Adding heavily now"

$SIVE, $AAOI (as ELS player), $POET, Celestial AI. 2027–2028 CPO inflection.

The implication for retail: by the time the next phase is consensus, the asymmetric upside is gone. Watch what Phase 3 names get added to before institutions pile in.

Track record — calls that actually played out

Receipts. So you can calibrate.
$AXTI
Validated
Called the InP substrate bottleneck a year early

IntelliEPI's CEO publicly confirmed "InP shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure" in Q1 2026 earnings — exactly what Serenity called.

view on X ↗
$RPI
+72% over 2 sessions
Raspberry Pi demand-spike thesis

Called +55% revenue growth when sell-side consensus was +14%. Earnings printed +58%. Stock +44.76% on 3/31 and +27.43% on 4/1.

view on X ↗
$AAOI
Multi-bagger from entry
Entered at ~$84, called "way too cheap"

Full transceiver supply chain + ELSFP build for CPO. Said "10x revenue from optical transceivers in H2 2027." ~$500M cash on the balance sheet.

view on X ↗
$LNG
+52.74% YTD
"Most obvious" energy-war pick

Cheniere Energy as the cleanest US LNG export beneficiary of geopolitical disruption.

$CVX
+35.44% YTD
Energy-war supermajor

Bought as an Iran-tension hedge.

view on X ↗
$IREN
Flipped
Was long → went bearish after $6B ATM

A reminder that he updates his theses when the cap structure changes against him.

view on X ↗
Track record is self-reported and from public posts. The wins above are not a complete sample — losers and unconfirmed calls are not shown here. Calibrate accordingly.

How to follow live

This page is a snapshot. The actual stream of theses is on X.
Primary
@aleabitoreddit on X
Real-time thesis posts, replies, and chokepoint maps. Turn on notifications.
Long-form
Singularity Research Fund essay
The most thorough third-party synthesis of his framework and positions.
Performance
PhotonCap: +122% 1Y writeup
Independent breakdown of his returns and the "engineer who only buys what he's touched" angle.

Before you copy a single trade — read this

No fund, no 13F
Unlike a hedge fund manager, Serenity has no regulatory obligation to disclose holdings. What you see is what he chooses to post.
Never copy his sizing
He runs concentrated with ~1.4x margin; entry prices are sometimes disclosed, weights never. Follow ideas if you must — never sizing. His "Doomsday" percentages are hedges on his book, not a portfolio for you. July 2026 made it concrete: ~1.4x on a book that fell ~35% underneath = his self-reported −49.4% monthly drawdown.
He moves in real-time
His $IREN flip shows he changes theses when conditions change. By the time you read a tweet, he may have rotated.
Survivorship in track record
Self-reported wins; losers and stop-outs are not posted with the same visibility. Calibrate the +122% accordingly.

Sources

All picks on this page are paraphrased from public posts. Verify against primary sources:

Not affiliated with Serenity, AleaBito, or @aleabitoreddit. Not investment advice. Some picks may be out of date by the time you read them — always check his most recent posts before acting.

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